Looking Ahead

📍Global Sumud Flotilla Sets Sail for Gaza Strip

The Global Sumud Flotilla, a fleet of twenty humanitarian ships with delegates from 44 countries, is en-route from Barcelona to the Gaza Strip. The flotilla set sail on Sunday in an attempt to end Israel’s eighteen year maritime blockade of Gaza. Activists on board, including Greta Thunberg, are calling for safe passage to deliver aid to relieve the famine in Gaza.

Over half a million Palestinians face severe hunger and at least 322 people have already died of malnutrition. The Sumud Flotilla marks the fourth attempt to reach Gaza by sea this year after each prior flotilla attempt was intercepted and stopped by the IDF. The fleet is expected to reach Gaza around September 14.

What We’re Watching

📍U.S. Caribbean Military Deployment Escalates Tensions with Venezuela

Facts: In mid-August, 2025, the Pentagon announced the deployment of increased assets to the Caribbean under US Southern Command (SOUTHCOM). The reallocated force consists of a carrier strike group led by the USS George Washington, roughly 5,000 sailors and marines staged out of Puerto Rico, several destroyers, and a nuclear submarine. Pentagon officials described the mission as a counternarcotics operation intended to target cartel activities and secure maritime routes. However, the deployment comes after months of increasing tension between Caracas and Washington over corruption, narcotics flows, migration, and oil sanctions. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro condemned the deployment as a precursor to U.S.-backed regime change and increased Venezuela's naval readiness levels.

Analysis: The U.S. deployment signals the renewed use of hard power deterrence against the Maduro regime. With Maduro under U.S. indictment for narco-terrorism and his 2024 reelection widely disputed, the move reasserts U.S. military hegemony in the western hemisphere. Venezuela’s heightened coastal defenses and anti-U.S. rhetoric raise escalation risks. Over 7 million Venezuelans have fled since 2015, straining regional migration capacity amid mass-deportation operations and border closures in the U.S. As Caracas strengthens ties with Russia and Iran, including hosting two Russian nuclear bombers in 2018, the Trump administration’s decision reflects an ongoing revival of Monroe Doctrine politics, highlighting Venezuela as a flashpoint in broader great power competition.

📍Argentinian Central Bank Takes Preparatory Measures Following Milei Corruption Allegations

Facts: Argentina’s central bank raised reserve requirement ratios last Tuesday to “soothe markets” following allegations of corruption within Argentinian president Javier Milei’s administration. This is the third increase in three weeks of the reserve requirement, the percentage of funds held by banks in order to meet sudden withdrawal liabilities. Investors have been hedging investment, and increasing the reserve requirements to minimize lending. The economic turmoil arose following leaked audio of the former head of the disability agency, Diego Spanuolo (also Milei’s personal lawyer) discussing internal bribery funneling money to top officials. Argentinian police raided several homes and government offices in the investigation.

Analysis: Argentina is no stranger to economic uncertainty. In 2001, the government froze citizens’ bank accounts and failed to pay off its debt. The recession came after a series of moves designed to combat hyperinflation: the Argentinian peso was set equal to the US dollar and the government took loans they were unable to pay back. The increase in the reserve requirement comes as Milei’s libertarian party faces fierce opposition at home. Midterm elections are slated for October 26, and while Milei’s administration hasn’t addressed the kickback scheme, they have blamed political opponents for kicking up dirt around campaign period. Milei originally ran for president on a platform to combat hyperinflation and the free-falling peso.

📍Israeli Troops Deployed to Syria’s Mount Hermon Escalate Regional Security Risks

Facts: On August 25, Israel deployed a military convoy to gain control a region of southern Syria surrounding Mount Hermon. Syrian officials claim Israel’s incursion threatens its sovereignty and broader regional security. Israel denies operating in Syria, and said its forces made no arrests, despite contradictory Syrian reports of six arrests. The Mount Hermon area historically served as the base for arms smuggling operations by Hezbollah and Palestinian jihadis. Thomas Barrack, US Special Envoy for Syria, met with Syrian president Ahmed al-Sharaa in southern Syria to mediate the dispute following a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Analysis: Persistent and mounting risks posed by the Islamic State have increased in recent months. The group has resurged in the Sahel and West Africa, and UN counterterrorism experts anticipate ISIS will continue to exploit sectarian tensions in Syria to recruit and expand. Despite major defeats in 2017 and 2019, ISIS-backed terror operations persist in Iraq and Syria, prompting US involvement. On August 19, a US ground mission killed a senior ISIS financier in northern Syria in a rare raid. Continued tension between Israel and Syria risks widening the vacuum for Islamic State operations in the region on top of existing turmoil.

📍Earthquake In Eastern Afghanistan Threatens Regional Stability

Facts: On August 31, 2025, a 6.0 magnitude earthquake struck eastern Afghanistan near Jalalabad, a city of roughly 200,000. Officials report at least 800 fatalities and 2,500 injured, with numbers expected to increase. Thousands remain trapped in rubble, while aftershocks and blocked access routes further complicate recovery efforts. Afghanistan’s government, run by the Taliban since 2021, has limited resources and strained international legitimacy, complicating an international humanitarian response. Humanitarian aid fell from $3.8 billion in 2024 to $767 million in 2025 as dozens of states and NGOs continue to withdraw aid amid humanitarian and security concerns.

Analysis: The earthquake compounds existing humanitarian and security emergencies in Afghanistan. The nation of 40 million already faces severe food insecurity, with over 15 million facing severe hunger. Looming water scarcity has pushed rural populations into vulnerability and even threatened Kabul’s central water supply. Beyond the looming humanitarian catastrophe, the earthquake threatens to further destabilize fragile border provinces with Pakistan that host critical refugee aid corridors and ISIS-K strongholds for arms and other illicit smuggling. Afghanistan’s worsening instability, compounded by natural disasters, threatens broader regional instability and humanitarian catastrophe.

What We’re Reading

💡Christopher Clark’s essay in Foreign Policy titled “The End of Modernity” is one of our favorite op-eds of the summer and a fascinating exploration of the evolving world order.

💡Ten small and medium-sized countries are in talks to create a new trade organization called the "Future of Investment and Trade Partnership,"

💡Russian President Putin and Indian Prime Minister Modi were seen holding hands walking into a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping…. How romantic!

🚗One For The Road🚗

Join TSI!!! Follow this link for our application and important schedule information, and be sure to stop by one of our two information sessions at 8pm today (9/2) and 8pm Sunday (9/7) in ICC 105.