What We’re Watching

📍Trump-Associated Business Tycoon Reshapes Diplomacy in Africa

Facts: Massad Boulos, the father-in-law of Tiffany Trump, is creating new economic deals supporting the President’s “trade, not aid” strategy. Mr. Boulos, who serves as senior adviser to the Middle East and Africa for the Trump Administration, has loosely defined responsibilities in his role. In support of US efforts to build commercial ventures in Africa, he is making several high-profile, under-the-table deals across the region. This past summer, Tiffany Trump vacationed on the yacht of a Turkish billionaire with interests in Libyan oil, which occurred alongside multiple backchannel meetings between Boulos and the West Libyan government, including a personal seaside villa dinner. Mr. Boulos initially denied attending.

Analysis: Boulos’ unconventional approach to diplomacy is reshaping US policy in sensitive areas of American investment. The intermixing of family affairs and politics elicited concerns from the bureaucracy and partner governments over Boulos’ credibility and personal interests in the region. With the termination of USAID and other traditional American soft power mediums, Boulos’ family business dealings are helping to fill the gap. Reactions to this change emerged in July, when Boulos’ private maneuvers around the State Department startled officials throughout the Middle East. This behavior is a departure from conventional diplomacy toward official business at the hands of those closest to Trump, setting a new precedent for American strategy abroad.

📍Denmark Excludes U.S. from Greenland’s Largest Military Drill

Facts: On September 17, Denmark led Arctic Light 2025, the largest-ever military exercise in Greenland. The exercise included 14 NATO members, but notably excluded the United States. Sweden, Norway, Germany, and France joined the security and logistics drills for potential defense scenarios based on increased Chinese and Russian activity in the Arctic. Moscow condemned the drill as “destabilizing,” while Copenhagen framed it as a show of NATO solidarity in the Arctic. Despite the U.S. absence, Denmark confirmed that the two countries will continue to work together with a drill at Pituffik Space Base, a critical U.S. missile-warning site later this week.

Analysis: The United States has traditionally been a key component of NATO training exercises and joint missions in the arctic, and Denmark’s choice to exclude the U.S. from Arctic Light 2025 is a notable break in precedent. The move spells out weakening U.S. authority in Greenland, which is essential to defending the U.S. mainland against missile and space threats through forward-located early detection, tracking and interception capabilities. NATO allies are learning to coordinate Arctic defense without Washington. For America, this represents a growing trend: U.S. allies increasingly see its presence as dispensable, enabling Russia and China to exploit gaps in the U.S.-led security structure and world order.

📍UK Police Nab Three on Spying Charges, Signalling Escalation in Russian Covert Operations

Facts: Detectives in the UK are investigating two men and a woman arrested in Essex on Wednesday under suspicion of tracking down dissidents on behalf of Russian intelligence organizations. As the Russo-Ukraine War nears its 4th year, Moscow has increasingly employed youth and petty criminals as proxies to carry out covert actions abroad, triggering a surge of sabotage-related incidents across Europe. The arrests come just days after Lithuania charged 15 people with ties to Russia with terrorism offences for packing explosives into cargo shipments going to Ukraine. MI5 director Ken McCallum accused Moscow of creating “mayhem” across Europe through covert sabotage and influence operations.

Analysis: The arrests in Essex are a reminder of how the Kremlin is ramping up the scale of its covert operations by recruiting and instructing proxies abroad. Russia has turned to untrained individuals for short-term infiltration operations since western European nations expelled Russian diplomats at the onset of the Russo-Ukraine War. This strategy has revealed gaps in traditional counter intelligence as Russian operations aimed at disrupting European support for Ukraine spread across the continent. Moscow’s confidence in its ability to carry out operations using proxies will only build in the absence of a unified European response.

📍Saudi-Pakistan Defense Pact Signals Slipping U.S. Credibility Amid Regional Power Shifts

Facts: Last week, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a mutual defense pact while six other Gulf nations committed to increasing their military and intelligence cooperation. The mutual defense pact aligns Saudi Arabia under Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella and secures diversified partnerships tbat decrease reliance on the U.S. for protection. Six Gulf states have also committed to increasing their intelligence exchange and military cooperation, including more joint military drills and the development of an early warning air defense system to notify all parties about incoming ballistic missiles. In early September, an Israeli strike targeting key Hamas negotiators in Qatar paused ceasefire talks and sent Hamas leadership into hiding. Qatar has committed to maintaining its mediator role in future ceasefire negotiations and claimed it did not receive a warning about the attack until after it began.

Analysis: Although a Saudi official asserted that the Gulf states’ renewed military commitments are not in direct response to recent events, the agreements come just a week after an emergency Arab-Islamic summit in Doha addressing the Israeli strikes. Although the U.S. retroactively condemned the attack, critics argue the strikes undermined the U.S.’s credibility in negotiations by overtly sabotaging the peace talks with Hamas. In the face of threats from Israel and Iran and recent conflict between India and Pakistan, the Saudi-Pakistan pact signals Riyadh’s focus on security guarantees and regional power accumulation via strategic alignment under Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella.

📍Estonia Invokes Article 4 as Russia Yet Again Violates NATO Airspace

Facts: On September 19, three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets violated NATO airspace over Estonia for 12 minutes before being intercepted by Italian F-35 fighter jets deployed by NATO. Estonia requested NATO Article 4 consultations in response to the event, only the 10th time in the organization’s history, which enables formal discussions between member states over the issue. Earlier this month, Russian drones violated the airspace of two other NATO members, Poland and Romania, resulting in the invocation of Article 4. According to Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tshakna, this latest incursion marks the fourth Russian violation of Estonian airspace this year, with Tshakna calling for increased political and economic pressure on Moscow.

Analysis: As Russia continues to wage war in Ukraine, Putin has shown that he is comfortable testing NATO borders in Eastern Europe. NATO’s lack of meaningful action against Russia has encouraged these Russian incursions, which have already escalated from drones to fighter jets. Invoking Article 4 gives Nato members a platform to discuss further sanctions or other forms of retaliation against Russia. European leaders face challenging decisions in terms of their response amidst negotiations to conclude the Russo-Ukrainian War and run the risk of allowing tensions to escalate, risking U.S. involvement in another European conflict.

📍TikTok to Stay for Good? China and US Set to Strike a Deal

Facts: On September 20, President Trump called Chinese president Xi Jinping to discuss a proposed deal to transfer control of TikTok to American owners. The call followed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s announcement of an agreed “framework” between the two parties in Madrid this past Monday. President Trump said that the U.S. “look[s] forward to getting that deal closed,” emphasizing the opportunity for further dialogue at the South Korea APEC summit next month. In an attempt to assuage concerns over Chinese control of U.S. data, the White House stated on Saturday that in any TikTok deal, tech giant Oracle will be responsible for data security regarding the powerful TikTok algorithm.

Analysis: A week of positive diplomatic communications over TikTok’s ownership signals improvement in U.S.-China relations after recent disputes surrounding NVIDIA’s access to Chinese markets. The Trump Administration’s fourth delay of the TikTok ban this year marks a complete pivot from his attempts to ban the app in his first term and Trump is now crediting his election victory for the app’s preservation. However, Congressional lawmakers remain concerned about any continued reliance on ByteDance’s algorithms. Bipartisan legislation last year required the divestment of TikTok from Chinese ownership, a potential conflict with Trump’s proposals. U.S. negotiators must be wary and calculate insistence for a deal against American leverage in the global semiconductor supply chain.

What We’re Reading

💡Falling through the cracks. UAE AI firm G42 and Microsoft have yet to break ground on a $1 billion geothermal-powered data center in Kenya’s Rift Valley that was set to be completed this upcoming May.

💡US observers join Belarus’ military exercise at the last minute! Belarussian President Lukashenko seemingly wants the best of both worlds.

💡Like father, like son. Eduardo Bolsonaro, the son of Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, was charged with coercion on Monday for his involvement in his father’s failed coup.

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