What We’re Watching

📍Madagascar President Flees Country in the Face of Gen-Z Protests

Facts: On Oct, 12, Madagascar President Andry Rajoelina fled the country aboard a French military aircraft in response to Gen-Z unrest. Since late September, widespread protests have erupted across Madagascar over worsening water shortages, electricity outages, and allegations of corruption within the government of President Andry Rajoelina. Over the weekend, the elite military unit CAPSAT, which helped Rajoelina seize power in 2009, refused to fire on protestors, instead joining their ranks. The clashes have seen at least twenty-two protestors killed and several senior officials dismissed. Rajoelina’s abrupt departure came shortly before he was set to appear on radio and television to deliver a speech addressing the nation.

Analysis: Madagascar’s political crisis highlights the speed at which popular unrest can destabilize regional governments. The island’s uncertain political future renders commercial shipping routes connecting East Africa to the Indo-Pacific market in jeopardy and opens the country up to potential new foreign influence. France’s colonial ties and facilitation of Rajoelina’s evacuation, combined with China’s growing investment in the island, reveal shifting power balances over interest in the resource-rich but heavily impoverished island. Just as in the recent case of Nepal and Morocco, the weaponization of social media exposes novel weaknesses in state control that might suggest a broader global trend, encouraging states to follow suit.

📍Syria and Kurdish Forces Reach Ceasefire after Aleppo Clashes

Facts: On Oct. 7, the Syrian regime and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) reached a ceasefire after several days of heavy fighting that left at least two dead in Aleppo. The clashes came amid escalating tensions between the central government and Kurdish militants in northeast Syria over territorial control and potential Kurdish integration into the Syrian military. The fighting was concentrated in areas controlled by Kurdish forces, exposing vulnerabilities in local security mechanisms in the Rojava region of Syria, where overlapping chains of command between the SDF and local militias spurred infighting. The agreement aims to stabilize the north of Syria and prevent further tremors between the two forces.

Analysis: The ceasefire reflects an uneasy pause in the clashes that have erupted between the Syrian government and the SDF. While the two factions have occasionally collaborated to oppose ISIS, their relationship remains fragile. The United States, which continues to back the SDF militarily while also supporting the SDF-state integration, finds itself at a crossroads: each flareup between the two groups risks losing U.S. diplomatic support in Syria after the ousting of Bashar al-Assad. Syria’s infighting reduces the likelihood of a liberal democracy emerging, undermining the U.S. desire for continued integration of the two parties to build a stable, independent, and democratic Syria.

📍India Welcomes Taliban Official as Kabul-New Delhi Relations Improve

Facts: The Taliban’s foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi arrived in India on Oct. 9, marking Kabul’s most significant diplomatic action since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan in 2021. In the years since, Afghanistan has faced dire humanitarian situations, worsened by the Trump administration’s withdrawal of aid. Muttaqi met with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, who announced that India would re-open their embassy in Kabul after it was closed in 2021. India also agreed to receive diplomats from Afghanistan and pledged to protect Afghan sovereignty. Muttaqi was temporarily exempted from United Nations sanctions in order to travel to New Delhi, where he will remain for the duration of the talks.

Analysis: Muttaqi’s visit is a breakthrough for the Taliban, who have struggled to create diplomatic relationships since coming into power. The news also comes at the dismay of President Trump, who just last month made it clear that his administration seeks to re-take the Bagram Airfield military base vacated by American forces in the 2021 withdrawal. India, along with other countries in the region, condemned Trump’s ambitions. The newly strengthened relationship between India, an American defense partner, and the Taliban effectively extinguishes his dream. Bagram Airfield possesses strategic value as a hub for counterterrorism operations in Central Asia and strategic proximity to China. The Taliban's turn to a regional power in India signals the development of regional power dynamics in the absence of the western aid.

📍Australia and Papua New Guinea Sign Major Bilateral Defense Treaty in Wake of Chinese Military Drills

Facts: On Oct. 6, the leaders of Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) signed a mutual defense agreement (MDA) for military integration. The treaty reflects growing bilateral engagement on security partnerships in light of China’s recent military drills in Oceania. In February, the Chinese provided very little advance notice on live-fire exercises in international waters between Australia and New Zealand. In June, the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy released photos of two Chinese aircraft carriers operating beyond the “first island chain.” In response, Australia ran its largest bilateral military drill with the United States, which included the PNG Defense Forces for the first time, and signed the MDA with PNG.

Analysis: Australia and Papua New Guinea possess strong foundations for defense, signaled by the 2023 PNG-Australia Defense Cooperation, Australia’s largest defense partnership with any country. Outside of traditional military measures, Australia and PNG also signed an updated Cyber Cooperation agreement in 2022, focused on building cyber resiliency in support of a more secure Indo-Pacific. PNG’s involvement in bilateral military agreements risks undermining its desire for increased economic cooperation with China. As China employs a dual strategy of military and economic integration with the South Pacific Islands, Australia and its allies seek to counter any ambitions to shift the regional balance of power.

📍U.S. Treasury Finalizes $20 Billion Currency Swap With Argentina Despite Competing Agricultural Exports

Facts: On Oct. 9, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a $20 billion currency swap with Argentina. The deal aims to calm the nation’s turbulent financial markets and stabilize the peso, which became increasingly volatile following a series of political stumbles by President Milei in the past month. The move comes less than three weeks after Argentina suspended its 26% export tax on soybeans, initiating a twofold increase in export orders from China overnight. Soybeans are the single largest American agricultural export, and China typically accounts for half of U.S. soybean sales. However, in the midst of tariff negotiations between Washington and Beijing, China has entirely boycotted American soybeans this harvesting season.

Analysis: The Treasury deal elicited blowback from American farmers who have lost billions in revenue this year due to cratering Chinese demand. The trade war between Washington and Beijing has pushed Chinese soybean buyers toward lower-cost producers in Argentina and Brazil. The peso buyout further disincentivizes Milei to reinstate agricultural trade barriers. The Treasury's willingness to bail out Argentina without concessions for American farmers highlights the political goals of the deal: boosting an ideological ally. Bessent himself said U.S. policy aims “to help [Milei]–to bridge him to the election,” referring to Argentina’s midterms at the end of October.

📍Taiwan Announces Construction of New Air Defense Dome

Facts: Taiwanese President William Lai announced on Oct. 10 that Taiwan will build an air defense system similar to Israel’s Iron Dome, which uses radar to track and protect against short-range weapons. Lai said that Taiwan will also increase its defense spending from 2.5% up to 5% of its GDP by 2030. The dome will use artificial intelligence as part of a “smart defense combat system,”employing Taiwan’s advanced precision technology to counter its numerical weakness in munitions and personnel against China. The announcement follows increasing PRC military activity in China’s military activity in the Taiwan Strait, including frequent military drills and near-daily incursions into Taiwanese territorial waters and airspace.

Analysis: China may view Taiwan’s efforts to bolster its defense capabilities as a direct challenge to Beijing’s sovereignty claims, heightening potential escalation risks across the Strait. President Lai’s announcement also signals a response to recent pressure from the Trump administration to increase its self-reliance. Although the U.S. continues to provide Taiwan with significant military support, it has reduced its provision of military aid packages in favor of raw weapons sale agreements, shifting the defense responsibility to Taiwan. Simultaneously, Taiwan's opposition KMT party has previously obstructed major defense appropriations bills in favor of restoring cross-Strait relations and threatens to impede Lai's defense agenda in favor of preserving the status quo.

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