What We’re Watching

📍UK Military Equipment Used by Sudanese Militia Accused of Genocide

Facts: After the rebel militia Rapid Support Forces (RSF) captured a major Sudanese city on October 26th, a secret United Nations Security Council report revealed the alleged export of British military equipment to the RSF by the United Arab Emirates. Small-arm weapons and armored vehicle engines recovered from RSF-controlled territories were identified as products of the Welsh manufacturer Miltec; the UK government has licensed the company to export military goods to the UAE since 2013. Evidence in the dossiers reviewed by the UNSC indicate that Britain continued defense export approvals to the UAE even after learning the same equipment risked diversion to UAE-backed groups fighting in Somalia, Libya, and Sudan.

Analysis: Britain’s alleged complicity comes at a time of increased violence in the Sudanese civil war, undermining the credibility of the Global Western coalition in a critical proxy region. The exposing of the West’s complacency arrives in the face of an expanding authoritarian footprint in Sudan with the presence of Chinese drones and plans for a Russian naval base on the coast. The discovery that British weapons reached the RSF through a U.S.-allied Gulf state counters the Western strategy to effectively limit RSF access to outside military support. The dynamic of weakened Western legitimacy threatens to limit the West’s ability to secure influence in a rapidly militarizing Red Sea corridor.

📍UAE Transferred China Technology to Upgrade Missiles, Biden Admin Sources Reveal

Facts: On Oct. 25, U.S. intelligence revealed that the UAE supplied Huawei with technology that extended the range of China’s air-to-air missiles, giving Chinese jets a combat edge over US aircrafts. Six intelligence sources familiar with the Biden administration confirmed the intel. The software, from Emirati AI firm G42, is chaired by Emirati national security adviser Sheikh Tahnoon, showing state entanglement. It optimizes missile flight paths. G42 and Huawei denied any technology transfer to the Chinese military. Despite the heightened U.S. concerns over UAE-China technology ties, no laws were broken. The issue strained Biden-era relations but did not lead to official sanctions or condemnation.

Analysis: Close U.S. allies like the UAE are carefully balancing and even boosting relations with China. The UAE is playing a paradoxical role by hosting U.S. troops while also potentially threatening their lives in the Pacific. The intel leak may pressurize Abu Dhabi to cut ties to Beijing, but the denial complicates the picture. It leaves the door open to claim no wrongdoing and maintain the status quo. The situation is a signal to the U.S. to tighten export controls and monitor close allies for unauthorized technology transfers. The U.S.’s reluctance to publicly sanction the UAE signifies prioritizing Gulf alliances to counter Chinese influence in the region.

📍China Removes Export Ban on Dutch-Based Nexperia Chips, Averting a Global Production Crisis

Facts: Following the Oct. 30 U.S.-China trade summit, officials confirmed that China will remove its export ban on Nexperia semiconductors, providing relief for automakers on the brink of a global production crisis. Nexperia is a Chinese-owned chipmaker based in the Netherlands, placing it at the center of the U.S.-China trade war. The Hague seized control of the Dutch Nexperia branch in September, citing security concerns over technology sharing with China. Beijing retaliated with a ban on Nexperia exports from China to European manufacturers, creating a severe supply shortage and prompting major automakers to suspend production. Meanwhile, Nexperia’s Chinese unit claimed it had enough supply to operate independently of its Dutch counterpart.

Analysis: European companies that maintain ties with both China and the West are increasingly vulnerable to supply chain disruptions. As U.S.-China competition over semiconductor manufacturing and export controls intensifies, European countries are facing a tradeoff between their economic dependence on China and aligning with U.S. trade policies. The Nexperia crisis shows the potential for U.S. trade policy to backfire on Western economies. Although U.S. President Trump’s Oct. 30 summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping prompted China’s removal of the Nexperia export ban, the U.S. faces an uphill battle as it balances its economic security and trade with countering China’s growing technological capabilities.

📍Contested Cameroonian Election Sparks Protests

Facts: Cameroonian security forces killed 23 people and arrested around 200 during protests sparked by the recent presidential election. The protests came after opposition leader Issa Tchiroma Bakary rejected the election results. Incumbent president since 1982 Paul Biya, 92, won an eighth straight term. Tchiroma Bakary now faces accusations of inciting violence after he prematurely declared victory. The majority of the violence occurred in Douala, Cameroon’s largest city and economic capital. Following the news, the French Foreign Ministry issued a formal statement condemning the crackdowns and violence.

Analysis: This marks yet another instance of recent protests erupting due to dissatisfaction with the government. On Oct. 12, the government of Madagascar collapsed as a result of mass protests, and multiple demonstrators have been killed in ongoing Moroccan protests. These events reflect a concerning trend of political destabilization that is becoming routine in former European colonies. This leaves the West with a difficult choice: turn to unpopular interventionist policies or remain uninvolved. Western nations have an interest in preventing outcomes similar to Burkina Faso, which has moved towards authoritarianism under the anti-western Traoré regime.

📍Radio Free Asia Forced to Shut Down Over Lack of Federal Funding

Facts: On Oct. 29, Radio Free Asia (RFA), a U.S. government-funded radio station dedicated to independent media reporting across 7 Asian countries, announced that it will halt operations for the first time due to federal funding delays as a result of the government shutdown.The RFA started in 1994 with the goal of “promoting democratic values and human rights,” countering authoritarian narratives, and battling restrictions on information dissemination. Alongside the Voice of America, the RFA exposed the Chinese government’s persistent abuse of Tibetans and Uyghur Muslims, as well as its coverup of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan and secret Chinese police operations in New York City.

Analysis: The closure of RFA is a dangerous step back in U.S. strategic competition with China, just as it secured a short-term deal with Beijing to temporarily suspend trade restrictions. While President Trump celebrates the agreement as a victory, the Chinese harnessed their dominance over rare earths processing and purchases of U.S. soybean to win key U.S. concessions with little compromise. Outlets such as the RFA have served as critical information sources to millions of regular Asian listeners, successfully bypassing media firewalls. The U.S. risks sacrificing the strategic advantage of promoting the freedom of press and democratic values in areas of authoritarian repression.

📍Carney Meets with Xi, Highlighting Canada’s Shifting Stance

Facts: On Oct. 31, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea. Although they did not reach an official agreement, both leaders seek to reduce tariffs on Canadian canola and Chinese electric vehicles. The leaders expressed a joint desire to repair relations after nearly a decade of strained ties under former Canadian PM Justin Trudeau. Carney has signalled openness to increasing trade with Beijing as he looks to double non-U.S. exports in the next decade. Canada is the single largest importer of American goods, with nearly half of all Canadian imports coming from the U.S.

Analysis: Heightened distrust between Canada and the U.S. is driving Carney’s desire to reconcile relations with Xi. This distrust may gradually drive Canada towards Chinese stability in contrast to erratic American trade policies. The decline of U.S.-Canada trade relations may mark the beginning of Canada’s shift away from American goods, regardless of whether it's toward China or elsewhere. Such a shift will not only harm American producers and consumers that rely on integration with Canadian markets but also leave the door open to Chinese influence in the Western hemisphere.

Looking Ahead

📍Nvidia Bringing AI Supercomputing to Africa

Our View: On Oct. 23rd, Nvidia confirmed a $700 million deal with the African-based technology company Cassava to provide its data centers with advanced artificial intelligence (AI) computing capabilities. The agreement represents the largest AI investment on the continent and supplies Cassava with some of the most advanced processing chips in the world. Nvidia’s collaboration with Cassava represents a broader geopolitical race to shape Africa’s technological future, revealing the political and economic power available to the United States through private sector diplomacy. As a U.S.-based transnational corporation, Nvidia’s alignment with the U.S. government provides Washington with a flexible instrument to both compete and grow.

What We’re Reading

💡Sweden and Ukraine are finalizing a deal to transfer Ukraine up to 150 JAS 39 Gripen fighter jets. The advanced Swedish-made jet would mark a major boost to Kyiv’s air power.

💡The U.S. is withdrawing 700 troops from Eastern Europe as part of a global shift toward the Indo-Pacific. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth framed it as European self-reliance, but the decision sparked concerns from GOP senators of eroding deterrence in Europe.

💡Pakistan and Afghanistan extended a fragile ceasefire after deadly border clashes between the Taliban and Pakistani forces. Islamabad accused Kabul of aiding militants, and warned that “open war” may erupt if peace talks scheduled for Nov. 6 collapse.

💡North Korea tested sea-to-surface cruise missiles just hours before President Trump’s arrival in South Korea on Oct. 29.