What We’re Watching

📍Trump Wants South Africa Out of G20, Reasserts ‘White Genocide’ Claim

Facts: On Nov. 5, President Donald Trump said that he will not attend the G20 summit in Johannesburg on Nov. 22-23. He declared that South Africa “shouldn’t even be in the Gs anymore” because of its “bad” policies, confirming that no U.S. official will be present at the summit. Trump’s dissatisfaction stems from a new South African land law which allows the government to seize White-owned farms without pay to address apartheid reparations. The administration imposed a 30% tariff rate on South Africa in response. Additionally, the Trump administration is fast-tracking refugee applications for White South Africans, while limiting overall U.S. refugee spots to 7,500.

Analysis: President Trump’s call to expel South Africa from G20 is an attempt to use U.S. influence to instigate domestic policy reforms abroad. By boycotting the summit, the U.S. signals disapproval of actions it views as anti-Western. South Africa’s removal is unlikely, as expelling a member requires a unanimous vote. Nonetheless, Trump’s move could fracture G20 unity on trade and climate issues. The decision to favor White Afrikaners while sharply reducing overall refugee intake shows selective priorities, which risks U.S. partnerships with Africa in terms of trade. The U.S.’s perceived threat to South African sovereignty may further damage Washington’s credibility on the global stage.

📍U.S. and Qatar Open New Combined Command Air Defense Post

Facts: On Nov. 3rd, the U.S. and Qatar inaugurated the Middle East’s first bilateral Combined Command Post for air defense at Al Udeid Air Base. According to U.S. Central Command, the new post will allow for increased cooperation between the two nations’ militaries to track and defend against air threats. The announcement comes less than two months after an Israeli airstrike in Qatar that spurred a White House executive order declaring new U.S. security guarantees for the Gulf state. Serving as America’s largest base in the region, Al Udeid notably sustained damage this summer from an Iranian missile attack.

Analysis: The establishment of a joint air defense command underscores Qatar’s deepening ties with the United States as one of its closest Arab partners and highlights Doha’s growing leverage in shaping Washington’s Gulf security architecture. By strengthening coordination on air and missile defense, Qatar’s cooperation reinforces America's personal security shield against threats across the region. Doha’s willingness to host the new facility reflects confidence in the U.S.’s new security guarantees and recognition of its own strategic value, evident in last month's pilot training agreement on American soil. These moves reveal a new dynamic in U.S.–Qatar relations, where Doha’s growing clout allows it to shape the terms of partnership with Washington.

📍EU Report Dismisses Georgian Membership Due to “Democratic Backsliding”

Facts: The European Commission's recent report on EU candidates stated that Georgia is “not on the trajectory to become an EU member state,” citing democratic backsliding. Once at the forefront of democratic reform among former Soviet republics, political repression has grown in recent years. The government has jailed opposition leaders, restricted media outlets, and violently cracked down on protests. Elections are another point of contention, with many observers claiming that the Kremlin meddled in 2024 elections on behalf of the pro-Russia Georgia Dream party. Georgia’s authoritarian streak accompanies a broader shift toward Russia in terms of trade, especially in Russian oil and wheat.

Analysis: The EU report’s findings all but cement Georgia’s exclusion from the EU and reinforces its continued trajectory toward Russia. Despite overwhelming public distrust of Moscow by Georgians, the Kremlin has found ways to strengthen Russian influence in the nation. Russian involvement is a reminder that Moscow has the means to pull countries into its orbit non-militarily. In contrast to many other former Soviet states, Georgia is visibly trending back to Russia. Putin’s goal of creating satellite states is illuminated once again in Georgia, and he’s shown no indication of stopping at Tbilisi.

📍China Sentences Ringleaders of Burmese Scam Network to Death

Facts: Five members of the Burmese Bai family, a notorious scam ring, were sentenced to death by Chinese courts on Nov. 4. The family, based out of Myanmar’s Kokang region, operates scam compounds, illegal gambling dens, prostitution rings and casinos. In recent years, Southeast Asia has served as an epicenter for global scam operations. In neighboring Thailand and Cambodia, rackets including sextortion scams, fake gambling sites, and impersonations of government authorities have netted illicit actors billions of dollars. These all come from scam centers similar to those used by the Bai family, whose operations rely on human trafficking.

Analysis: Despite the physical distance, the efforts of these scam networks routinely exploit American citizens. Not only do scammers target vulnerable populations around the world, including American youth and the elderly, they have also infiltrated media and entertainment. 8Xbet, a supposed online gambling site, suddenly partnered with multiple English Premier League teams, including Manchester City and Chelsea Football Club, who regularly attract millions of worldwide viewers. Further research into the company revealed that it did not operate as it claimed, instead operating a front that used fake executives to hide its connections to Southeast Asian scam rings. These networks continue to successfully infiltrate society and profit by posing as legitimate brands.

📍Paris Prosecutor’s Office Launches Investigation into Youth Suicidal Content on TikTok

Facts: On Nov. 4, the Paris prosecutor’s office announced an investigation of  TikTok over accusations that the platform has failed to clamp down on suicide-inducing content targeted towards the youth. The investigation arrived following over a lawsuit by seven French families against TikTok over multiple teen suicides. Additionally, reports from governmental bodies and NGOs over the app’s psychological harm detailed the extensive promotion of self-harm and eating disorder videos. While TikTok has asserted its numerous algorithmic safeguards towards protection of teens, international concern exists over the dangers of TikTok and other social media platforms.

Analysis: For an app that has relied on its global popularity as a source of political and economic strength, TikTok’s controversies in France evoke broader international scrutiny of TikTok as a national security and societal threat. Ten countries have already banned TikTok, citing concerns over data security and privacy, the instigation of violence and disorder, and disruption to social stability. Governments are increasingly skeptical of TikTok’s ability to comply with domestic laws and promote the safety and security of its users. Amid multiple controversies, TikTok’s ability to operate globally may arrive at the cost of increased public oversight over its closely-guarded algorithm.

Looking Ahead

📍JNIM Tightens Grip on Mali with Bamako Blockade

Our View: JNIM, al-Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate, has progressed in its campaign to destabilize Mali by fortifying a blockade of Mali’s capital, Bamako. JNIM’s blockade, which initially began in September 2025, has recently intensified with widespread shortages and the disruption of fuel routes. Fuel prices have quadrupled as citizens’ frustration with Mali’s military junta, the political target of the blockade, steadily increases. JNIM has weaponized Mali’s economic collapse to erode state authority and expose the fragility of military rule. The crisis makes clear: in the Sahel, jihadist networks threaten to exert more political leverage than the states they fight.

What We’re Reading

💡Syria joined a US-led coalition against the Islamic State after a meeting between President Trump and Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa.

💡Russian forces threaten to encircle the strategically vital city of Pokrovsk, Ukraine’s last major stronghold in the Donetsk region. Ukraine reportedly dispatched special forces to reinforce the city.

💡French Police arrested Abdoulaye N, a 39-year-old security guard and bodybuilding social media influencer, in connection with the Louvre heist. He is one of four suspects arrested in connection with the heist.

💡The United States Senate narrowly voted to pass a short-term funding bill to reopen the government, potentially ending the 41-day shutdown. The bill now goes to the House, which could vote as soon as Wednesday.

🚗One For The Road🚗

TSI club members, keep an eye out for PD Bootcamp Week events and resources!!!