🚨What We’re Watching🎥

📍Iran Is Militarizing Key Gulf Islands Escalating Defiance Against the U.S. Regional Allies

📚Facts: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) deployed advanced missile systems on the Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa islands. The islands are located in the Persian Gulf, near the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s critical maritime chokepoints. Approximately 20 percent of the world’s crude oil commerce passes through the strait, making its security a global priority. Iran has controlled these islands since 1971, but the United Arab Emirates disputes this sovereignty over the territory. Rear Admiral Alireza Tangsiri, commander of the IRGC, told Iranian state television that the IRGC can target nearby “enemy bases, vessels, and assets” and that the new systems can completely destroy any target within 600 kilometers.”

💭Analysis: The militarization of these islands directly contrasts with the U.S. strategic goals for the Gulf. The U.S. sent a letter to Tehran dictating a path to nuclear negotiations, which prompted Iran’s missile deployment as a show of strength and a clear rejection of the U.S. letter. Iran’s missile deployment in the Persian Gulf and support for the Houthis reflect its broader asymmetric strategy -- countering U.S. military power indirectly through increased infrastructure in the maritime choke point. With increasing U.S. warship presence in the Middle East under Defense Secretary Hegseth, Iran’s expansion challenges oil trade security and increases the risk of conflict in strategic waterways.

📍Somalia Proposes Exclusive American Access to Ports and Air Bases; Changes Dynamics in the Horn of Africa

📚Facts: On March 16, 2025, in a letter addressed to President Trump, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud offered the U.S. exclusive control over the country’s ports and air bases. The letter outlines how Trump could leverage these assets to counter other foreign influences in the Horn of Africa. The locations offered include bases in Berbera, which is in the self-declared state of Somaliland. Somaliland declared its independence from Somalia in 1991, but despite functioning as a stable, self-governing democracy, it remains unrecognized by Somalia or any other country. Mogadishu still asserts sovereignty over Somaliland and opposes any actions that could contribute to the recognition of Somaliland as an independent state.  Somaliland’s foreign minister called Mohuamud’s offer “desperate”, claiming that Somalia has no authority to give away the ports. 

💭Analysis: The move signals Somali interest in reasserting its sovereignty over Somaliland. If Trump accepts the offer, it would increase American influence in the Horn of Africa. The Horn of Africa is geopolitically important due to its proximity to the Middle East and its strategic location near key maritime routes, such as the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. These factors make the region crucial for global trade, security, and counterterrorism efforts. An expanded American presence would also challenge the increasing foreign influence of Russia and China in the Horn of Africa. The Trump administration recently targeted Islamic State (IS) militants in northeastern Somalia with airstrikes, continuing Biden’s counterterrorism strategy against militants in the country. During Trump’s first term, he withdrew 700 troops from Somalia, which allowed jihadist group al-Shabaab to resurge. Fearing another U.S. withdrawal, Mohamud may be willing to cede sovereignty over key assets to secure American support.

📍Secretary of State visits Caribbean Oil-Producing Nations in Search of Regional Loyalty

📚Facts: On March 26 and 27, Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Jamaica, Guyana, and Suriname. Tammy Bruce, the State Department spokesperson, emphasized the importance of developing “people-to-people ties,” enhancing economic prosperity, disrupting narcotics and firearms trafficking, and addressing illegal immigration and transnational criminal networks. Mauricio Claver-Caron, the U.S. Special Envoy for Latin America, added, “The security of Guyana is a key priority for us.” He expressed intent to protect Guyana from threats posed by Venezuelan territorial expansion efforts, such as the Venezuelan naval incursion into Guyana’s exclusive economic zone near an oil rig on March 1. 

💭Analysis: Rubio’s visit for unity with English-speaking Caribbean states grapples with regional politics, like the Venezuelan incursions, the Haitian crisis, and a growing Chinese presence in the Caribbean. Over twenty Latin American and Caribbean nations are involved in China’s Belt and Road Initiative infrastructure project, and China is a member of two development banks in the region. According to a House Foreign Affairs Committee report, China invested over $10 billion in Jamaica, Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, Antigua and Barbuda, Cuba, and the Bahamas between 2005 and 2022 into tourism, transportation, agriculture, and energy. The recent threat of tariffs from America and the removal of foreign aid forces the Caribbean and Latin America to search for other economic relationships, with China as a willing partner. Should this trend continue, the U.S.’s closest neighbors may not ally with America in an international conflict.

📍The German Green Party Supports Proposal to Expand the German Defense Industry While Climate Experts Express Concerns

📚Facts: In early March, European Union member states announced the Readiness 2030 Initiative to expand the European defense industrial base. The Readiness 2030 Initiative serves to increase Europe’s ability to support Ukraine and protect European interests. In Germany, Chancellor Frederick Merz proposed the allocation of 500 billion euros to increase military spending and infrastructure. He earned support from the German Green Party by announcing a plan to invest in climate protection to achieve carbon neutrality. Merz’s plan aims to promote Germany’s security and reduce its reliance on the United States amidst uncertainty around the US defense posture in Europe.

💭Analysis: Germany’s prioritization of defense funding compromises its long term environmental vision. The Green Party believed that Merz’s plan would address the climate crisis, aiming to use the investments to develop environmental infrastructure. Climate policy experts at the German Fraunhofer Society, however, state that the government’s spending might not effectively address climate goals aimed at reaching stable greenhouse gas emissions. Due to the Green Party’s powerlessness within the German parliament, Germany’s increase in spending on conflict and defense concerns undermines the country’s previous legislative focus on green energy and climate change, signalling a shift to hard realist concerns in Europe.

👀Looking Ahead👀

📍Colombia’s Humanitarian Crisis Worsens Amid Ongoing Armed Conflict

📚Facts: The Red Cross warns that Colombia is suffering its worst humanitarian crisis since the country signed its peace agreement with the former Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in 2016. Millions of Colombians have been internally displaced within Colombia due to the eight armed conflicts over six decades. On January 15, the ongoing conflict between the National Liberation Army (ELN) and dissident FARC guerrillas who rejected the peace agreement suddenly escalated. The ELN launched an attack on FARC as both groups vie for control of the northeastern Catatumbo region. The region's strategic border with Venezuela, its role in drug trafficking, and its role in coca production make it a key territory for criminal groups. Since January, the conflict has affected 80,000 Colombians, with tens of thousands displaced from their homes. 

💭Analysis: When President Gustavo Petro assumed his role in 2022, he promised to work towards “Total Peace” in Colombia and secure a deal with the ELN. However, progress has been slow, with negotiations repeatedly stalling amid ongoing violence and setbacks. Shortly after the ELN launched its attack on FARC this January, the Colombian government suspended the ongoing peace negotiations with the guerrilla force. Trump’s freeze on foreign assistance to Colombia has also impeded government efforts to combat criminal organizations by halting key anti-narcotics initiatives led by the Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs. The humanitarian crisis, mass displacement, and escalating criminal activity could fuel illicit drug trade and migrant flows to the U.S. - both of which Trump has vowed to stop.

💡The TSI Insider💡

The TSI business and marketing team regularly hosts events in our community square during the farmers market. During these events, the team works to promote our brand, garner subscribers to the newsletter, and teach our community about international affairs. So far events have included Pie TSI, international affairs jeopardy, and name that flag. If you’re on campus be sure to stop by Red Square this Wednesday to say hi and learn something new!

🚗One For The Road🚗

Spring has arrived here in Georgetown! Students have been enjoying the warm weather on the front lawn. Some of our favorite lawn activities include tanning, spike ball, reading, and listening to music.

Not a subscriber? Click here to subscribe! 

See You On Thursday For 🌊The Deep Dive!🌊

This week’s newsletter brought to you by the Beyond Borders Brief staff. Connect with us on social media to pose questions, comments, or feedback. Click here to learn more about TSI.