📚The TL;DR📝

1. China has increasingly expanded its distant-water fishing (DWF) fleets as it depletes domestic fishing stocks close to home. Chinese fishing fleets, which consist of an estimated 17,000 ships, have extended as far as Latin America and West Africa in search of new fishing grounds. 

2. China seeks to project geopolitical influence at sea through its “civilian militia” of commercial fishermen while framing its fleets as private to avoid taking accountability for infringing upon foreign waters and international maritime treaties. 

3. Chinese DWF practices have intensified pressure on West African fisheries alongside long-standing challenges in the region’s fishing sectors, harming a key protein source.

4. West African communities, constrained in their ability to consume traditional protein sources, have turned to bushmeat as an alternative.

5. Bushmeat increases the risk of zoonotic spillover, which has been linked to outbreaks of Ebola and viral hemorrhagic fevers, SARS-CoV-1, HIV/AIDS, and the costly and disruptive COVID-19 pandemic.

📌Fish-fluenza: How Chinese Overfishing Could Trigger the Next Pandemic📌

Meliandou is a town situated in the low-lying southwestern mountains of Guinea. In late 2013, a group of children approached a tree on the edge of the city to discover hundreds of nesting bats. The children burnt the tree and filled their bags with bats, looking to add a little protein to their diets. Among those children was two-year-old Emile Ouamouno. The exact origins are debated, but Emile likely ate a bat. At that moment, the deadly Ebola virus infected Emile. On December 6, Emile succumbed to the disease. The virus quickly spread to other members of Emile’s family who drove to a nearby city, Gueckedou, in search of care. What started with Emile rapidly spread throughout Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia. 

This was the first time Ebola spread to highly populated urban areas since the virus was first discovered in 1976. The results were devastating. The 2014 West African epidemic ultimately cost the lives of over 11,325 people, a case fatality rate of 40%, although the suspected death toll is much higher. In the U.S., 11 people were treated for Ebola virus infection, two of whom died. Ebola had emerged several times before 2014, but those outbreaks had remained contained within small rural areas. 

The 2014 Ebola epidemic began through zoonotic spillover, the transmission of disease from animals to humans. The more that animals and humans interact, the more a spillover event is likely to occur. Protein insecurity played a particularly insidious role in Ebola’s outbreak. The conditions that exposed Emile to an Ebola-carrying bat were not isolated but symptoms of deeper socioeconomic and geopolitical pressures in West Africa. Global actors, most notably China, have placed pressure on vital West African protein sources for decades through distant-water fishing. 

Race to the Bottom (of the sea)

The waters off the coast of West Africa host rich fisheries that serve as the backbone of local nutrition and the regional economy. In response to dwindling fish stocks in its coastal waters, China has increasingly engaged in distant-water fishing (DWF)—large-scale industrial fishing that frequently impinges on foreign waters and Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) established in the 1982 U.N. Convention on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). These fishing excursions also often entail illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing off the coasts of West Africa and other regions. Chinese DWF operations in West Africa use bilateral fisheries access agreements, joint ventures, licensing arrangements, and opaque business practices to exploit West African fish supplies. 

In numerous formal agreements dating back to the 1980s, West African states have granted China long-term access to their fisheries with minimal reporting requirements in exchange for little compensation relative to the value of the fish taken. In Mauritania, despite abundant fish stocks in its EEZ, the bulk of its fishing sector income comes from the sale of fishing licenses. In 2010, Mauritania signed a 50-year agreement with the Chinese fishing company Fuzhou Hongdong, allowing the company's vessels to catch over 100,000 tons of fish per year in Mauritanian waters in exchange for investing $200 million to construct ports, fishing vessels, and processing plants in the country. In the same year, Mauritania also signed a 25-year agreement with another Chinese company, Poly-Hongdong Pelagic Fishery, in exchange for $100M in investment. These agreements are vastly profitable for China. By 2020, Fuzhou Hongdong had produced over $70 million in fishery products annually, making it the largest fishing company in Mauritania. 

In other instances, Chinese vessels gain entry by displacing or purchasing local firms in alleged “joint ventures,” or by reflagging under African registries to circumvent restrictions on Chinese access to EEZs. One vessel in Ghana, LU RONG YUAN YU 919, is listed under the ownership of a Ghanaian front company with an annual revenue of $870 (Connado Enterprises Ltd). The Environmental Justice Foundation (EJF) traced the ultimate owner to Shandong Bodelong Group Co. Ltd, a Chinese firm with an annual revenue of $400 million. Chinese companies own up to 95% of all bottom trawlers in Ghana, even though they are registered under Ghanaian flags. Several nations have historically used reflagging in foreign fishing operations, but China plays a particularly dominant role in West Africa. 

Chinese fleets use foreign registry to evade accountability and dominate local fisheries. Although China’s DWF fleet is the largest in the world, its exact size is difficult to determine because of reflagging. While Beijing officially caps its DWF fleet at around 3,000 boats, the actual size of China’s distant-water fishing fleet is likely closer to 17,000 globally. Additionally, the Chinese fleets outcompete West African fleets due to government subsidies, ownership structures, and greater overall industrial capacity. China uses industrial trawlers, especially bottom and midwater trawlers, targeting small pelagics—schooling fish such as sardines, mackerel, and anchovies—in rich fisheries off the West African coast.  These vessels frequently violate local and international regulations by fishing in prohibited zones, using illicit gear such as dynamite and small-mesh nets, and landing illegal, underreported or unreported catches (IUU). In total, West Africa accounts for 40% of global IUU fishing. 

Under-resourced coast guards, outdated legal frameworks, corruption, and political collusion prevent comprehensive enforcement against IUU fishing. Chinese companies (and other foreign vessels) reportedly bribe officials to look the other way on illegal activities. In other cases, the presence of organized crime and pirates, especially in the Gulf of Guinea, complicates patrols and inspections. Chinese vessels also obtain licenses under weakly enforced conditions, thereby limiting legal consequences.  Limited deployment of locally mandated vessel monitoring systems (VMS) and Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders also leaves gaps in surveillance.

From Deepwater Trawling to Coastal Collapse

Fish catches in West Africa have plummeted over the last three decades, partly due to the extractive practices of Chinese fleets. In Ghana, the catch of small pelagics (a staple of the West African diet) fell by 59% between 1993 and 2019. Other states throughout the Gulf of Guinea and West Africa are experiencing similar trends. Additionally, artisanal fishermen report smaller catches and venture farther offshore to find fish, since foreign trawlers have decimated nearshore resources.  In the last two decades, more than 1.5 million hectares of mangroves in West Africa have disappeared, removing nursery habitats for fish and crustaceans. Additionally,  trawling, the fishing method preferred by Chinese fleets, has a high discard rate, resulting in the discarding of juvenile fish and endangered species and undermining the replenishment of fish populations.

Declining fisheries pose severe threats to local livelihoods. In West Africa, fisheries directly employ or sustain 6-7 million people and provide up to 66% of animal protein intake. The emergence of DWF has also caused the loss of 300,000 artisanal fishing jobs in the region. Despite regional production increases in fishing (from 2.1 million to 3.8 million tons between 2008 and 2022), population growth and rising exports mean per capita fish consumption is falling from 14kg in 2008 to less than 11kg in 202,  and is projected to fall under 9kg by 2030. 

Fish serves as the primary low-cost source of protein in the region. As it becomes scarce, dietary protein insecurity increases. In The Gambia, the price of a basket of bonga, a cheap source of protein, has almost tripled since 2024. Hunger is also worsening overall: nearly 25 million people in West Africa are unable to meet their basic food needs, up 34% since 2020. 

The Danger of Bushmeat

Although protein shortages do not automatically trigger dietary shifts, declining fish supplies and rising food prices push rural and urban peripheral households increasingly towards bushmeat as a protein source. An estimated 70% of Ghanaians, and high proportions in Nigeria, Liberia, and other coastal states, consume bushmeat regularly, often due to necessity.

Locally-produced livestock protein is scarce in West Africa because the region is prone to tsetse fly infestation. These flies transmit trypanosomiasis, a disease that is often fatal to cattle, goats, and other domestic animals, making much of West Africa uninhabitable for domestic livestock. For poor rural dwellers, bushmeat is therefore an essential source of protein during the agricultural lean season, particularly when fish and livestock are prohibitively expensive or unavailable. 

Protein shortages are associated with increases in bushmeat hunting, which heightens exposure to animals with high viral reservoirs, such as bats and nonhuman primates. Zoonoses such as Marburg, Lassa fever, mpox, and Ebola are more likely to spill over during periods of increased bushmeat hunting. One study in Liberia found that bushmeat hunting increased during periods of hardship or restocking failures in fisheries. The study also notes that if fish is to serve as a direct replacement for bushmeat, it is essential to improve the management of domestic fisheries. Although isolated rural villagers and hunters face the greatest risk, urban spillover is increasingly possible through interconnected trade and transportation networks. 

The 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak in West Africa is only a recent example of how a disease threat in one part of the world can affect the rest of the world. These outbreaks are only increasing—a World Health Organization review identified that zoonotic disease outbreak rates climbed 63% from 2012 to 2022, compared to 2001 to 2011. 

🌎Why It Matters🌎

Although the Chinese government has signalled its aim to rein in IUU fishing activity, critics question China’s ability and willingness to do so. DWF continues to be an extension of Chinese foreign policy and a tool for asserting maritime domination. China is not the only distant-water actor in West Africa, but the scale of its fleet gives it a uniquely large sway on regional stocks. China’s relative success in using civilian fishing vessels as a quasi-military force has raised serious concerns about states’ ability to counter Chinese expansion. In less-resourced West African countries, states’ abilities to crack down on illegal fishing are limited. Furthermore, in several states, China legally operates in exclusive economic zones as states willingly sell their fishing rights in exchange for foreign currency. Chinese DWF contributes to consequences beyond the heightened risk of conflict and the crippling of domestic fishing industries. 

Severely impoverished West African communities rely on a limited flow of fish inland as one of their few sources of safe protein. Chinese DWF cripples West African access to fish, straining already protein-scarce communities. West African governments either overlook or embrace the Chinese presence in their territories in exchange for increased economic ties and investment. On the ground, however, protein scarcity can heighten the likelihood of turning to bushmeat, which increases exposure to zoonotic pathogens.

60.3% of emerging human infectious diseases are animal-borne, of which 71.8% have originated from wildlife. Among those are some of the most devastating and deadly diseases in recent history, including Ebola, COVID-19, SARS, Marburg, and HIV, all of which originated from wildlife.  While multiple interacting factors shape spillovers, increasing hunting of disease reservoir species is a recognized contributor.

COVID-19 devastated the global economy, costing upwards of $14 trillion and taking more than 7 million lives globally (the Economist estimated ~27 million deaths by measuring excess mortality), 1.2 million of which were in the United States. Each time there is a zoonotic spillover in West Africa, as was the case in the 2014 Ebola outbreak, the world waits with bated breath to see if it will be the next global pandemic. A biological threat anywhere is a biological threat everywhere.