📚The TL;DR📝

1. Syria: Capital is Damascus, 23,865,423 people, 7 million internally displaced, 6 million refugees living abroad. Borders Turkey to the North, Lebanon to the West, Israel to the Southwest, Jordan to the South and Iraq to the East. Governed by a Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham led by a transitional government since December 2024. Interim President is Ahmed al-Sharaa. 

2. Former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his father Hafez al-Assad ruled Syria from 1970-2024 by favoring the Alawite ethno-religious minority and oppressing the Sunni-Arab majority. 

3. In 2011, current Syrian interim president al-Sharaa founded Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaeda affiliate organization in Syria. Jabhat al-Nusra was the Sunni-Salafi-Arab alternative to the Syrian government with a stronghold in the Idlib province of northern Syria. 

4. Jabhat al-Nusra went through numerous stages of ideological, structural, and operational change, ditching its al-Qaeda affiliation and terrorist tactics while embracing a Sunni-Syrian identity and evolving into Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham. 

5. Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham overthrew the al-Assad regime in December 2024 and now controls Syria. Understanding the organization and its history provides the best chance of understanding Syria's future at this inflection point in Middle East history. 

📌The Story of HTS: Can Former al-Qaeda Terrorists Create a Promising Future For Syria?📌

How would you label an organization that employed suicide bombers, but fought against ISIS and Hezbollah? How would you feel about this organization taking over a country? These are the problems currently facing international leaders as they evaluate the new Syrian government. 

At the start of the Syrian Civil War in 2011, a small group of al-Qaeda jihadists crossed the border from Iraq into Syria to activate jihadi sleeper cells hidden across the country and establish Jabhat al-Nusra. Ahmed al-Sharaa directed the organization in a campaign of kidnappings, extortion, suicide bombings, and other terrorist activities in support of global jihad. In 2016, al-Sharaa renounced al-Nusra’s affiliation with al-Qaeda and formed Jabhat Fateh al-Sham. Jabhat Fateh al-Sham merged with other Sunni opposition groups in the Syrian Idlib province, forming Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in 2017. Afterwards, HTS underwent a process of moderation and Syrianization changing its identity from a terrorist organization to a Sunni opposition to the al-Assad regime. 

For seven years, HTS ruled the Idlib province through the semi-autonomous Syrian Salvation Government while growing into the most powerful opposition to Bashar al-Assad’s regime. In late November 2024 Turkey allowed HTS to resume its campaign against the al-Assad regime. On December 8th, 2024, HTS toppled the al-Assad regime, taking control of Damascus and most of western Syria. Following the campaign, HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa became Syria’s interim president. On January 29, 2025, the al-Sharaa regime proclaimed that “all military factions in Syria, including Syria’s army and security forces, as well as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, were dissolved.” 

Former members of HTS now leading the Syrian interim government will continue to shape the development of Syria, its role in international politics, and the balance of power in the Middle East. Syria and the new al-Sharaa regime are emerging during a radically new period in regional politics defined by a stronger Turkish presence, a weakened Iran, a preoccupied Israel, and increasing affluence in the Gulf states. At this inflection point, analysts are wondering whether al-Shaara will be able to bring about a cohesive Syria focused on rebuilding a war-torn nation or if Syria will become a safehaven for terrorism under an oppressive Islamist regime. 

🪖How Instability Shaped Syria and al-Sharaa📚

HTS arose from Syria’s complicated ethnic and historical background. Located at the edge of the Arab world, Syria was ruled by the Byzantine Empire, the Islamic caliphates, and finally the Ottoman Empire. After World War I, the victorious Allies placed the region under a French mandate before Syria gained independence after World War II. However, the territory that became a French colony and later gained independence as “Syria” was a composite of multiple provinces that the Ottomans had administered separately to prevent conflict between the antagonistic tribes. Ethnically, modern Syria is about 50% Arab, descending from one of the Arab tribes that settled in Syria. Another 15% of the population is Alawite and the remaining 35% are minority ethnic groups such as Kurds, Druze, and Assyrians. From a religious perspective, Syria is 74% Sunni, and 13% belong to various Shia sects. Notable among the Shia are the Alawites, an ethno-religious group whose faith was historically viewed as heretical by both Sunnis and Shias. 

Long standing ethnic tensions and a lack of national cohesion fomented instability in post-colonial Syria. From 1946 until 1963, the newly independent Syria was plagued by coups, revolts, and infighting. Stability seemed to arrive when the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party seized control of the territory during the Baath Revolution. Hafez al-Assad, the Ba’ath minister of defense, staged another coup in 1970 and held the presidency until his death in 2000. After Hafez’s death, his son Bashar al-Assad ascended to power and ruled the country until HTS ousted him in 2024. When Hafez al-Assad, an Alawite, took control of Syria he intentionally appointed Alawites to positions of power in government, integrating the Alawite power and military capacity with that of the regime. For centuries prior to the al-Assads’ reign,  Sunnis in Syria persecuted Alawites as heretics. Under al-Assad, the Alawites carried out a number of religious and ethnically motivated acts of violence and repression against other ethnic groups in the country. These long standing ethnic tensions foment tensions and acts of ethnic cleansing to this day. 

Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham is considered the successor of Jabhat al-Nusra and Jabhat Fateh al-Sham because each of these organizations was led by Ahmed al-Sharaa. Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa was the son of a failed pan-Arabist, victimized by the al-Assad Regime, and permanently displaced by Israel’s annexation of the Golan (Jolan) Heights. Ahmed al-Sharaa had a strained relationship with his family, prompting him to find solace and purpose in Salafi teachings. Salafism is a Sunni religious ideology, not a religion, which blames the West and non-Salafi Muslim infidels for the state of Islamic nations. When the U.S. invaded Iraq in 2003, Ahmed al-Sharaa—then 21—used jihadi networks in Syria to emigrate to Iraq and join al-Qaeda. He then adopted the nom de guerre Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, matching his jihadist identity and rebuking Israel’s rule in the Golan Heights. His first foray into jihad would end fast—in 2005, American forces captured al-Jolani and imprisoned him in a US military detention center until 2010.

⚔️The Syrian Civil War: New Realities Force al-Jolani to Evolve💭

When al-Jolani was released in 2010, Bashar al-Assad had just begun employing torture and unleashing regime forces across Syria against predominantly Sunni Arab Spring protestors. The situation collapsed into a civil war when Sunni defectors from the Syrian military formed the Free Syrian Army (FSA) aimed at overthrowing the al-Assad regime. Not long after, al-Jolani formed Jabhat al-Nusra with backing from al-Qaeda leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and then leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq Abu Bakar al-Baghdadi. After al-Nusra became operational, analysts designated the group as al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria.

Jabhat al-Nusra was a Salafi jihadist terrorist organization. For Salafis, jihad is a type of war, that uses religious ideology to justify drastic insurgent tactics. Al-Nusra utilized Salafi ideology to justify suicide bombings that killed civilians and called for a jihad to overthrow Bashar al-Assad. As a result of al-Nusra’s terror campaign, the United States designated them as a terrorist organization in December 2012. However, terrorist ideologies are not easy to build states with. Therefore, al-Jolani and al-Nusra eventually evolved away from al-Qaeda and toward a more moderate identity.

In 2015 al-Nusra collaborated with the Free Syrian Army, joining Jaysh al-Fatah in pushing the al-Assad regime out of the Idlib province. Jaysh al-Fatah was an umbrella organization of Sunni Islamist militants centered around the moderate Ahrar al-Sham. Ahrar al-Sham and al-Nusra would then jointly rule the Idlib province. Over time, Ahrar al-Sham became critical of al-Nusra’s allegiance to al-Qaeda and pursuit of global jihad, leading to a conflict between the two groups. Al-Nusra was barred from UN sponsored talks between moderate rebel groups and the al-Assad regime in 2015. As a result, public protests broke out in support of moderate policies and the even more moderate Free Syrian Army.

Internal and external pressures caused al-Nusra to renounce their affiliation with al-Qaeda and on July 28, 2016, al-Jolani rebranded al-Nusra as Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (JFS). Al-Jolani labeled JFS as an “independent entity and not an extension of previous organizations or factions.” Shortly after, in 2017, JFS merged with other Sunni opposition groups, creating Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), meaning “Assembly for the Liberation of Syria”. The group’s founders, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani and Sheikh Hashim al-Sheikh, were both Salafi jihadists who argued for jihad against the al-Assad regime but did not support global jihad, al-Qaeda, or ISIS.

🔎The Rise of HTS’ Syrian Salvation Government🏛️

In 2017, HTS purged al-Qaeda supporters from its ranks in a campaign of assassinations and IED attacks. Members loyal to al-Qaeda or global jihad were either killed or defected from HTS to form Hurras al-Din (HD) meaning “Guardians of the Religion.” HD became al-Qaeda’s new affiliate in Syria and as a result HTS began eradicating HD. HTS integrated many smaller Sunni militias into its ranks between 2017-2020 and destroyed the groups who refused to integrate. Al-Jolani also worked to Syrianize HTS, removing outward-facing leaders who were not Syrian Arabs. This effort made the group more popular in Idlib, especially among Sunnis.

As HTS consolidated control over Idlib province, al-Jolani built a semi-autonomous civilian-led Syrian Salvation Government (SSG). The SSG was an Islamist government that mixed technocracy with a strict interpretation of Sharia law. HTS members held key positions within the SSG to ensure it maintained their ideology. The SSG segregated the sexes in public life and barred married women, including child brides, from schools and universities. Observers have accused the SSG and HTS of arbitrary arrests, assassinations and torture against their political opponents, ranging from ISIS to journalists.

At the same time, the SSG offered a wide variety of government services and marketed itself as a moderate Sunni Islamist alternative to the Assad regime. HTS and the SSG provided food aid, security, welfare, education, policing, and governance to its subjects. They established a comprehensive education system, mixing some Western-NGO-designed curricula with Salafist rhetoric. International observers found their provision of utilities in HTS-controlled territory to be more effective than the Assad regime.

🌹A Man and His Country at a Crossroads🧭

Leaders across the world struggled to characterize HTS and whether their government in Idlib was a front for terror. Ahmed al-Sharaa has changed his name more times than he has sat for interviews with Western news outlets. Furthermore, Western outlets have repeatedly mislabeled HTS as ISIS, Al-Qaeda, al-Nusra, Jaysh al-Fatah, Fatah al-Sham, and even Hurras al-Din. Despite their shared history, these organizations had different members, ideologies, and operational structures. 

Since becoming president, al-Sharaa has emphasized the role of institution-building in the creation and maintenance of a lasting peace in Syria. He has also brought a wide range of ethnic and religious groups into his interim government, although he has been vague about holding elections and the timeline of reconstruction. 

Al-Sharaa’s government has a difficult relationship with the very minority groups they claim to be integrating into governance. The Druze, a small ethno-religious group in southern Syria, formed an independent military group in Syria after HTS’s victory and have sought to carve out an autonomous region for themselves. The interim government signed a comprehensive accord with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, creating a path to re-integration for the autonomous, predominantly non-Arab territory they rule. In the same week that al-Jolani signed this accord, troops loyal to him killed 830 civilians while suppressing an uprising by Alawites and Assad loyalists in western Syria. 

In their authoritative biography of Ahmed al-Sharaa, Hamzah Almustafa and Hossam Jazmati write that Ahmed’s relationship with his family became strained after he fell in love with an Alawite girl. His father and the girl’s family forcibly ended their relationship, destroying Ahmed’s relationship with his family in the process. Afterwards, Ahmed found solace in Salafism, setting him on the path toward terrorism. Twenty-five years later, Ahmed al-Shaara is at a crossroads. Under his leadership Syria will either become more tolerant, cohesive, and focused on rebuilding or an oppressive and vengeful Sunni Islamist state. 

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See You Next Tuesday For 🌎The Beyond Borders Brief!🌎

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