📚The TL;DR📝

1. Poland: 38,746,310 people, GDP of $1.628 trillion USD, neighbors Lithuania and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad to the north, Germany to the west, Czechia, Slovakia, and Romania to the south, and Ukraine and Belarus to the east. Head of State: President Andrzej Duda, Head of Government: PM Donald Tusk

2. For hundreds of years, Poland and Russia have been in conflict, with Russia conquering Poland in 1789 before Poland regained independence in 1918.

3. After World War , Poland became a Soviet puppet state, which became home to a massive pro-democracy movement sponsored by the United States.

4. Since breaking free from the Soviet bloc Poland has pursued closer relations with the United States, but is growing closer to its European partners since Trump’s re-election.

5. Now, Poland has announced it is returning to the draft, in the context of a wider military buildup meant to counter Russia But this buildup is highlighting divisions in Polish politics and society.

📌Poland’s Battle to Prevent the Next War📌

On March 7th, 2025 Poland shocked the world by announcing an expansive military draft to build a 500-thousand-strong army. Poland has good reason to be fearful of Russia after its war with Ukraine as a country that shares a border with Russia along the Kaliningrad Oblast. Poland is also seeking nuclear weapons to reinforce its security. Given there are only nine nuclear-powered countries, Poland acquiring them would bolster what is already mainland Europe’s largest military.

Despite the rest of Europe’s attempts to boost military readiness through a new defense plan, the cracks of decades of reliance on the US are widening. This occurs during a time when the United States is increasingly indifferent to the voices of its historic European allies. The US has recently shown weariness to support Ukraine and is proposing a settlement that sidelines European voices. While American resolve on the continent has diminished, Poland’s has not. In a likely post-war Europe, Poland has shown that it is willing to detach itself from traditional alliances to defend its freedom ardently. 

⚔️Poland and Russia: Rivals Through History⏳

Russia and Poland have viewed each other as existential threats despite their shared Slavic heritage. In the 16th century, Poland fought the Livonian War against the Russian Tsardom. Russia dominated the early stages of the conflict, but the Union of Lublin united Poland and Lithuania into a Commonwealth with a robust military. Poland not only defeated Russia but subsequently grew powerful enough to occupy Moscow in 1598.

However, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth soon fell into political and economic turmoil and succumbed to the Russian Empire’s growing power. Between 1772 and 1795, Prussia, Russia, and Austria stripped Poland of statehood through successive partitions. While Polish citizens maintained a strong desire for self-determination, their lack of military and political organization led to failed revolts that Russia brutally suppressed. Through its ‘Russification policy,’ Russia sought to erase Polish identity by imposing the Russian language and encouraging Russian settlers to replace native Poles.

During World War I, Poland exploited Russia's instability to regain autonomy. The Russian Tsar faced opposition from a rising Communist movement led by Vladimir Lenin. The Bolsheviks' rise to power during the October Revolution created chaos and diverted Russian focus inward. The upheaval from the Russian Revolution weakened Russia’s control over its western territories, paving the way for Poland to achieve its independence. While the emerging Soviet Union sought to reclaim Russia’s former territories, Poland crushed the Red Army in the 1920 Battle of Warsaw and successfully defended Polish liberty.

However, Poland’s independence was short-lived.  Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union signed the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact to divide Poland amongst themselves before invading in 1939. The occupation led to the death of over a quarter of the pre-war population, nearly 6 million people.  After the war, the Soviet occupiers established the Polish People’s Republic. It was ruled by the communist Polish United Workers Party and was a loyal member of the Warsaw Pact.

Polish citizens fought back against the occupation at uprisings in Poznań (1956) and Gdańsk (1970), but these uprisings were brutally repressed. Around this time, the US, eager to support anti-communists beyond the Iron Curtain, began supporting the Polish trade union Solidarity, formed by workers in the port city of Gdańsk in 1980. The CIA transferred nearly $10 million between the years 1982 and 1987, while Ronald Reagan and Pope John Paul II became public advocates for the union. This combination of clandestine and open support allowed the burgeoning democratic movement in Poland to gain traction. On December 31, 1989, amid widespread independence movements across the collapsing Soviet Union, Poland established a democratic state, finally free from an occupying force.

🤝Poland’s American Friends?❓

After communism fell in Europe, Poland quickly emerged as a rising power by implementing critical economic reforms like liberalization and privatization. Unlike many Central and Eastern European countries struggling with market transitions, Poland’s economic optimism positioned it as a prime candidate for membership in NATO (1999) and the EU (2004)

Poland's acceding to NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) marked a turning point in its military policy. NATO’s mutual defense clause under Article 5  provides Poland with indispensable military support from the entirety of its members in the event of an invasion. More importantly, Poland used NATO as an outlet for increasing cooperation with the United States. Poland saw US foreign initiatives as theirs and endorsed them with vigor.  While much of the world was divided on the issue, Poland fought alongside the US-led ‘Coalition of the Willing’ in the 2003 Iraq War.

Poland has benefited from its intimate ties with the United States. Since 2000, Poland has been one of the largest recipients of US security assistance funds, receiving funding for advanced military equipment. Through programs like The International Military Education and Training (IMET) and Foreign Military Financing (FMF), Poland has gained critical access to F-16 fighter aircraft, C-130 transport aircraft, HMMWVs, tactical radios, Scan Eagle, and C4I enhancements.

🪖Can the Draft Provide Strategic Autonomy?🛡️ 

New threats have forced Poland to assume a leading role in Europe’s defense. Poland immediately condemned Russia's invasion of Crimea as a violation of international law and a dangerous sign of resurgent Russian imperialism that threatened the country. Poland began highlighting the importance of a robust military, introducing a 35k-strong paramilitary in 2016 to repel a future Russian invasion. Poland used its influence in NATO to triple the NATO Response Force strength to 40,000 troops.

No single event has affected Poland more in recent times than Russia’s subsequent invasion of Ukraine. As the rest of the world finally saw Russia’s disdain for territorial integrity,  Poland began taking matters into its own hands. Poland allocated unprecedented resources to bolster its defense capabilities compared to its NATO counterparts, with spending exceeding 4% of GDP in 2023 and 2024. The Polish army has expanded from less than 100,000 soldiers in 2015 to over 200,000 in 2024.

Poland has taken advantage of the opportunities provided by the new Trump Administration's antagonistic approach to NATO and the panic it has caused across Europe. On March 7th, Poland’s Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, announced plans to build a 500k-strong military force capable of fending off Russia. The initiative would provide voluntary military training to all fighting-age males while creating a formidable reserve force similar to that of Switzerland.

Poland already has the third-largest army in NATO after the US and Turkey and the largest army in mainland Europe, closely followed by France. Poland, with its already significant political weight, now has the potential to become a regional power capable of significantly influencing European foreign policy. 

🗺The Political Battle to Prevent the Next War🤺

Poland’s leaders, however, disagree with how they must approach their traditional alliances with their expanded military. While the Prime Minister controls Poland’s policy, the President holds great significance as the country’s head of state. Poland’s Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, has rebutted Trump’s dismissiveness toward the EU and defended its importance in the continent.

Tusk warned that the US’s shift on Ukraine had put his country “in an objectively more difficult position,” proposing that Poland bolster its security independent of alliances. Meanwhile, Poland’s President, Andrzej Duda, continues to champion his close friendship with Donald Trump and believes that the continued American presence in Eastern Europe benefits the country. Although Duda has been a strident critic of Russia’s war in Ukraine, he has been silent on Trump’s criticisms of Article 5, keeping with his right-wing Law and Justice party’s pro-American tilt.

Poland also recently requested nuclear weapons from the United States as a deterrent against Russia. Duda, in line with Prime Minister Donald Tusk, subtly proposed expanding France’s nuclear umbrella as an alternative. This move indicates Poland’s unprecedented willingness to reconsider its historically strong partnership with the U.S. 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has scared the young Polish democracy into action. Poland has spent centuries as the victim of foreign occupation under both Tsarist and Communist Russia. Poland’s recent actions to bolster its army and gain access to a credible nuclear deterrent demonstrate its determination to remain outside Putin’s grasp. 

Poland’s decision to expand its military reflects the troubled transatlantic relationship. With the United States and Europe growing apart from one another, European states are finding they can only rely on themselves for defense.

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