What We’re Watching

📍Sovereignty or CIA? Sheinbaum’s Counter-Narco Dilemma

Facts: In a visit to Mexico City last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio vowed to increase U.S. strikes against terrorist-designated cartel groups while committing to respect Mexican sovereignty. Earlier this year, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum stepped up the military’s operations after a Trump executive order in February designated the Mexican Sinaloa cartel in Culiacan as a terrorist group. Rubio praised Sheinbaum’s military crackdown on drug trafficking, but also reinforced the US’ enduring commitment to countering narcotics and organized crime. Rubio’s sentiments are amplified by two recent U.S. military strikes on vessels allegedly operated by the terrorist-designated cartel Tren de Aragua.

Analysis: Despite Sheinbaum’s insistence on Mexican sovereignty, the US and Mexico have a long history of joint-counter narcotics operations on Mexican soil. A Reuters investigation uncovered long-term CIA collaboration with Mexican counterparts, including joint operations between US and Mexican special operations forces. U.S.-trained units have been key in several high profile narcotics-busting operations. Sheinbaum, who entered the second year of her term with a whopping 79% approval rating, has so far straddled a fine line between subordination and cooperation with the United States.

📍U.S. Sanctions Southeast Asian Pig-Butchering Networks

Facts: On September 8, the U.S. Treasury (OFAC) sanctioned 19 entities tied to cyber-fraud compounds in Myanmar’s Karen State and Cambodia. Those sanctioned included facility operators in Shwe Kokko, Burma, a notorious hub for virtual currency scams under the protection of the Karen National Army, as well as Cambodian casino complexes linked to Chinese organized crime. Treasury officials described the operations as “modern slavery,” noting trafficked workers are often coerced into scams through debt bondage and other exploitative methods. Americans lost more than $10 billion to pig-butchering scams in 2024, and the Treasury sanctioned Philippine-based Funnull Technology in May for providing infrastructure that enabled hundreds of thousands of scam sites.

Analysis: Last week’s sanctions mark Washington’s broadest move to date countering Southeast Asian scam center operators. Earlier this month the UN Office on Drugs and Crime flagged the spread of such operations into Timor-Leste’s Oecusse region, where shell companies and local corruption often mask illicit activities. Although the Trump administration’s heightened focus on pig butchering operations may be a pawn amid negotiations with the CCP, the sanctions highlight the growing threat of international cyber crime and fraud. Sustained multilateral cooperation is essential as multinational syndicates embed within fragile jurisdictions and conflict zones across ASEAN.

📍Kirk’s Assassination Galvanizes Cross-Border Activism

Facts: On September 13, far-right activist Tommy Robinson led the “Unite the Kingdom” rally in London, drawing between 110,000 and 150,000 participants. Violence broke out as Robinson supporters clashed with counterprotesters, leaving 26 police officers injured with 25 individuals arrested. Marchers displayed tributes to U.S. conservative activist Charlie Kirk, whose assassination in Utah on September 10 drew bipartisan condemnation in the U.S. and sympathy abroad. Vigils, fundraising drives, and official statements from leaders including Keir Starmer, Viktor Orbán, Javier Milei, Giorgia Meloni, and Benjamin Netanyahu highlighted Kirk’s prominence abroad and the convergence of modern political movements through social media.

Analysis: The assassination of Charlie Kirk functioned as a galvanizing force for right-wing political movements internationally. Saturday’s “Unite the Kingdom” rally grew into one of the largest far-right demonstrations in modern UK history while tying domestic British grievances to American political violence. Parallels with Nepal’s recent “Gen Z Revolution,” in which youth protesters and rioters elected a new prime minister via Discord after the government attempted to ban social media, underscore the growing prevalence of digital platforms to mobilize unrest and amplify narratives internationally. Kirk’s assassination highlights the growing power of digital platforms to galvanize cross-border mobilization.

📍Ukraine Facing Major Budget Deficit, Says IMF

Facts: Last week in Kyiv, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) declared that Ukraine’s national budget estimates through 2027 face a $20 billion deficit. Ukrainian officials refute the IMF’s findings, sticking to their original $37.5 billion budget estimate that sits roughly $10 to $20 billion shy of the IMF’s estimation. Already, Ukraine allocates about 60% of its GDP to finance the war. Aid from Western allies is often allocated for critical civilian functions including government wages and humanitarian aid provision. Since a majority of the IMF’s initial $15.5 billion loan has been utilized, Ukraine’s largest active creditor is now the EU after the Trump administration significantly decreased U.S. aid earlier this year.

Analysis: Ukraine’s budget issues are due in part to Western estimations that the Russo-Ukraine war would conclude by the end of 2025. As the war enters its fourth year, both sides struggle to meet wartime resource demands. The IMF reportedly suggested increasing citizens’ taxes to make up the gap, but Ukrainian officials declined due to the potential domestic political ramifications. Further, recent Russian drone violations of Polish and Romanian skies underscore Europe’s geographic exposure to Russian military action. Ukraine’s fiscal shortfall calls into question its sustained wartime capabilities and imperils European security if not urgently addressed.

What We’re Reading

💡The Real China Model wrestles with the tension between ideology and authoritarian control at the core of Beijing’s playbook for global power projection and stability.

💡 In light of the anniversary of 9/11 last week, Michael Savage’s Power Wars remains critical (and timely) reading on how counterterrorism reshaped law, surveillance, and executive power in America.

💡Over the weekend Romania scrambled fighter jets after a Russian drone crossed into its airspace, a potential escalation targeting NATO states amid widespread resource constrains in the conflict and lackluster negotiation results.

🚗One For The Road🚗

Stay tuned for upcoming speaker events, professional development opportunities, and tabling games in Red Square!